Saturday, December 12, 2015

Comments on the BLS release of Jobs from 2014-2024

Take some time to watch this video from the BLS about the near term future of jobs in the US (1).

You will notice in the video that most appear to be jobs that are medically related. Which makes some sense when you think of the fact that the Boomers are aging and with age comes medical needs. But also there are Wind Turbine Technicians. Really Wind Turbines are going to become a big industry with oil being so cheap now? I guess the BLS knows something we do not know.

So here is the dilemma…

You are just getting out of high school, and are planning to go to college but what should you study? Obviously something in the health field right now because for the next twenty years it will have the most jobs and pay the most on average.

But medical school is not cheap. So you will borrow to get the education, but what happens if everyone else is thinking the same? What will happen if a whole generation of students go for the same career only to find themselves not employed due to an overcrowded market.

Right now oil is down because of an economic principle of supply and demand, and this same principal applies to labor as well (both physically in total numbers but also micro-wise in specific fields). So as the supply of graduating students increases in a specific job field, in theory the entry wages of that job field should decline due to oversupply. Going forward since the entry wages are depressed, the future wages will also become depressed since wages tend to increase as a percentage of past wages. Long term resultant is an increase possibility of lower incomes for those who now are up to their eyeballs in educational debt.

Now I am not saying this observation is absolutely true or not, but it seems to me that it does economically make sense.

This is something to ponder as we come closer to the Presidential Election in the U.S. We all should be asking ourselves “What is the plan for dealing with College Debt and ensuring that college graduates can get the income needed to pay that debt off in a timely fashion without jeopardizing the health of the economic overall”.


(1) BLS (2015). Fastest Growing Occupations 2014-24. YouTube Video. Retrieved from

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